What to make of President Trump’s re-election probability

As I alluded to yesterday, many of us are reading the tea leaves, including me, rather than the data. This is followed by why the data is not be trusted, at least not yet. 

Why is the data not to be trusted?

Amy Walter, of The Cook Political Report, conjectures we can’t see the data, at least in part, due to the lingering effects of the 2016 election. She opens,

  President Trump's job approval rating are stuck in the mid-40s, even as the nation's governors see their own approval ratings rise. Of the six high-quality battleground state polls we've seen since April, Trump is trailing in five of them. The RealClearPolitics average of national polls finds Biden leading Trump by 4.7 points — a lead twice as big as Hillary Clinton's final margin. 

  And yet, as Harry Enten writes on CNN.com, "an average of recent polls finds that a majority of voters (55%), believe Trump will defeat Biden in this election. Trump's edge on this question has been fairly consistent over time." So, what gives?

The Expectations Game?

The ‘inconceivable’ result may be causing distrust of unfavorable data on the probability of the President’s reelection in November. 

In managing expectations, we prepare for a repeat of the ‘inconceivable’ to diminish its sting.

  Fool me once, shame on you (pollsters and pundits)

  Fool me twice, shame on me 

Amy’s full article on cookpolitical.com

 Note: It is behind a paywall. I affirm paying for what I use as I am able.