dan ryan

Unemployment can be a structual problem.  However, it is not the current problem according to the SF Fed here .  Sometimes it seems that we want it to be a 'structural' problem and there fore have no responsbility in the short term to do anything about it.

News Release: Personal Income and Outlays, October 2010 This is some good news. More would be better but we will take what we can get.

Calculated Risk: New Home Sales decline in October Another month and another record for lowest new home sales. I guess there is a lot to purge.

Dr. Krugman weighs in here . It appears that those who are with Rep. Ryan all believe in complete  Ricardian Equivalence .  To follow must be a call for the abolishment of the Fed and a return to the gold standard. Why? What is the utilitarian benetit of gold-backed currency?

Econbrowser: Representative Ryan Requests

Paul Ryan continues down the path of ridiculous hyperbole.  He states -       "There is nothing more insidious that a government can do to its people than to debase its currency," This is a great example of someone who has no context or has no care in the way that he speaks. How can this be true? Nothing worse than a de-valued currency. You can certainly argue the positive and negative effects of de-valuing currency (and yes there are time when it is appropriate) and one would do much better focusing on that rather than making claims that cannot be true. So is this more insidious than the Tuskegee syphilis experiment .  Click here  for the full story on what Rep. Ryan said about the Federal Reserves' QE2 policies.

Wrestling Videos on Flowrestling Nick does well against the #5 ranked Mike Thorn but he is not quite in his league yet.

Bobby who wrestled for me with Little Huskies and Falcons is starting this year with Navy at 165 and is 4-2. He looked okay here except for the bear hug. If anyone has more matches let me know. 165 Dan Yates (Michigan) vs Bobby Barnhisel (Navy) MOV006_01

How I run budget policy based on NY times policy choices... Click here

One of the interesting correlations the Calculated Risk does on a regular basis is the correlation between unemployment and housing starts. As seen here . The comment is unemployment lags housing by 12 to 18 months. So does this mean that we should see unemployment be reduced significantly in the next 24 to 36 months?  The economists at the University of Michigan don't seem to think this correlation will hold as they predicted the following:            Housing starts, expected to total just 605 thousand  units this year, recover to 807 thousand in 2011 and 1.13 million units in 2012.   I understand that this includes multifamily which I will assume to 20% so that would be in the neighborhood of 600-650 single family or on the twelve month lag in the neighborhood of 8.2 - 8.5% unemployment. This isnt too far from their 2012 estimate of 9.3%.  My bigger concern is that in 2013 will we be at 7.5-7.7% unemployment? I don't think so.  Therefore the lag may be a little more pron

We have a bit of a track record of slight improvement in the job market.  Weekly claims were at 439,000  and the four week average is now 443,000 which is slightly better than last week.  The trend continue to improve but a snails pace.  Job creation is thought to begin somewhere between 420,000 and 460,000 which suggest that we are experiencing slight job creation. This has been shown in the previous five to six months in which we have had some job creation. So we can take this as it is not getting worse but also that it is not getting measurable better.  We seem to be in a holding pattern that I see us sticking to for the next 24 to 36 months based upon the limited amount of appetitte for monetary stimulus ( see Bernake's comments ) and no appetite for fiscal stimulus as demonstrated by both the President and the new congress.

If these numbers  are not sobering than nothing can be.  I am surprised at the frankness of how bad it is and that it is going to be without any end in sight in the next two years.  I have started to see spin about how 2 million jobs in 2012 is good.  It is not good because it still leaves unemployment well over 9%. Are we saying that this is ok? This is recovery?  Oh and with this we add trillions to the national debt.  If we are willing to add trillions to the debt (I believe that we are and will) then why can't we at least speak of fiscal stimulus?  Have ware become follows of Schumpeter and Austrians? We have so much faith in the system that created extreme asset bubbles.  It appears so. 

While I may agree with some of Dr. Krugman's  analysis  related to other countries consumption taxes, I think that he misses the point that just because you have a different source of revenue that does equate to less  politics in how you spend the revenue including a larger social safety net

The Cleveland Fed released  this  yesterday indicated that core inflation has risen only 0.1% in October (1.1% annual).  In addition, trimmed inflation was unchanged.  On another note it was not housing that is dragging the inflation numbers as the indexes for rent and owner's equivalent rent both increased. Lastly the BLS  stated  that CPI without food and energy is  the smallest 12-month increase in the history of the index, which dates to 1957.  As noted  here  by Mark Thoma were continued to look a lot like Japan.  My hope now is that we do as well as they did but I don't really believe that to be the case.

Scotia Capital - November

Canadian Housing Starts  are trending down which could bode well for housing prices but maybe bad the Canadian economy. This is something to be watched closely as it unfolds over the next two to five years.

Canadian Housing Bubble??

Wrestling Videos on Flowrestling

Wrestling Videos on Flowrestling

Wrestling Videos on Flowrestling

Wrestling Videos on Flowrestling

74kg Denis Tsargush Russia- vs. Sadegh Saeed Goudarzi Iran- | 2010 Wrestling World Championships on Flowrestling

2010 Stride & Ride: Sarah Ryan Help us find a cure for Sarah's MD.

Here is the text.  I am not sure that this is going anywhere. Another case on not taking action and hoping that things will work out in the end.  Why?

Is this another case of better than expected or the reality check that we are not growing.  The CBO estimated the the stimulus accounted for virtually all of this small growth.  More latter...

The idea that economics isn't rocket science   can be debated but if you are going to debate it then bring some actual evidence that support the claims.  How would increasing the money supply as stated decrease housing prices and activity?  I guess if come from the brain dead land of the University of Chicago and the Minneapolis Fed  who now argue that increase in money supply causes deflation.  This is plain crazy and the opposite of what is insinuated.  It just seems to be another case of that of  not letting the facts get in the my of my opinion (or ideology)

"Americans can always be counted on to do the right thing...after they have exhausted all other possibilities." -- Winston Churchill

As Brad Delong put it: "If the past decade has taught me anything, it has taught me that mistakes are avoided if you follow two rules: 1. Remember that Paul Krugman is right. 2. If your analysis leads you to conclude that Paul Krugman is wrong, refer to rule #1." Now, of course, Paul Krugman is not always right but his predictions and modeling have been incredible to say the least.  As we head back into malaise or recession or stagnation or whatever you call slow to no growth with long-term high levels of unemployment,  as noted this post . As the second half slowdown roots itself, we all will continue to see if this continues to be true.  

Why do I expect the unemployment rate to increase? A post from Calculated Risk that seems more and more like a fa de complet. In another note, It appears that Q2 GDP estimates has fallen from 2.4% (okay but not what we need) to somewhere between 1.1 and 1.5, which is not recession but pretty darn close.

There is some significant evidence  that we have not hit bottom in housing prices.

Federal Spending Target of 21 Percent of GDP Not Appropriate Benchmark for Deficit-Reduction Efforts — Center on Budget and Policy Priorities

This is from Paul Krugman and yet another example of things are 'great' because they are not as bad as it was or that others are.  If we play the comparison Game as noted above, it looks like US policy has been better than Germany. Who knew?

2010 Stride & Ride: Kristen Ryan

2010 Stride & Ride: Kristen Ryan

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/24/opinion/24tue1.html?src=un&feedurl=http://json8.nytimes.com/pages/opinion/index.jsonp http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/23/opinion/23krugman.html?partner=rssnyt&emc=rss http://www.minnpost.com/ericblack/2010/08/09/20353/tim_pawlenty_keep_the_tax_cuts_but_pay_for_them_then_cut_more_taxes

There is also a $37 billion auction of two-year notes Tuesday, at 1 p.m. Treasury prices  rose Monday, and a $7 billion sale of 40-year Treasury Inflation Protected Securities was well bid. At the end of the day, the 10-year note was yielding 2.607 percent. As you can see there is so much demand for Treasuries.  Have we concluded that we cannot invest for better than 2.6% over ten years?

Lawler: Existing Home Sales: “Consensus” vs. Likely So a few minutes before the release... Let's see what happens. I am hoping against hope that it isn't as bad as it seems.

As a Christ Follower - I don't need any of these worldly reasons to help. The situation overwhelms me with sadness. I do echo the need to have perspective on the ridiculous amounts of military spending compared to the ridiculously low amount of aid pledged/given.  I do appreciate the amount the US has given but want more and am especially disappointed in the rest of the world. http://robertreich.org/post/978427354/why-the-unfolding-disaster-in-pakistan-should-concern

Dealing with the Sunset of the Bush Tax Cuts (Part I)

If it appeared in my last commentary that the ground zero 'holy' site was a republican issue. It certainly is not... Illinois Current Democratic Governor Pat Quinn... "I’ve been to  Pearl Harbor . I laid a wreath at Pearl Harbor. I’ve been to  Auschwitz . I laid a wreath at Auschwitz. I’ve been to Ground Zero, and I laid a wreath there. I do believe that there are special places on Earth that should have a zone of solemnity around them. I would strongly urge those who are thinking of putting a mosque within that zone to rethink their position," Source:  http://www.nbcchicago.com/blogs/ward-room/quinn-ground-zero-manhattan-mosque-101038099.html#ixzz0x3M0tbUs I guess a politician has got to be a politician and leave any sense of principles behind when public opinions says he needs to be on this side of fence. This 'zone of solemnity' apparently excludes commercial buildings and souvenirs because not says solemn like good ol' capitalism.  Certainly a place of

“Ground zero is hallowed ground to Americans,” Elliott Maynard, a Republican trying to unseat Representative Nick J. Rahall II, a Democrat, in West Virginia’s Third District, said in a typical statement. “Do you think the Muslims would allow a Jewish temple or Christian church to be built in Mecca?” I am utterly confused by this statement.  I will try to be as delicate as I can.  First, Ground zero is a human tragedy, in which many Muslims, Jews, Christians and non-religious people died.  It is not a 'holy' site or either the Christian or the Jewish faith.  We can discuss whether all sites are holy from a Christian perspective but that would be for a different post.  The question that Mr. Maynard asks makes the clear assumption that New York, Ground Zero and possibly all of America are solely Christian or Jewish.  This is just plain wrong.  It is not what Christ wants us to do. It is not what God wants us to do. It saddens me and breaks my heart. 

The housing starts were around were most expected and obviously another indication that the new homes market is still at or near the bottom and has not moved significantly since at least May of 2009 and there is an argument that we are not statistical different from the 'bottom' of 479,000.  I will digest the numbers and have a little more latter.

As noted housing prices by CoreLogic , housing prices continue to flatten in June.  It seems like the mounting evidence that the economy is in recession in every meaningful way except for GDP but I am not sure that we continue through Q2 2011. At some point we will get around to discussing the U.S. economy has some serious structural issues.  Since we are not going to have a real meaningful  stimulus in the future, why can't we start now? If we assume away the housing bubble of the last decade and pair down the lasting effect of the dot com era, what do we have?  A service economy, (I am not saying there is anything wrong with this) that continues to erode the middle class (I am  saying there this is a problem).  The U.S. is not an exporting country but this needs to be addressed at some point.  Am I missing something?  What is the end game on the US trade deficit? 

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There has been a lot of talk around whether the second half of 2010 puts the U.S. back into recession. It seems that this will not be the case from a strict GDP standpoint but it certainly is from an employment standpoint. I am afraid that we all have lost sight of the importance of employment is and how its affects aggregate demand. We have a significant aggregate demand problem. Have we lost sight of the fact that if we continue to depress wages in order to raise profits (or even in many businesses, simply to stay afloat) that has significant downward pressure on all levels of prices. The spiraling effect simply cannot be left to the market to work itself out. It is so very alarming that we continue to follow the economic policies of Hoover and Carnegie and do not see how disastrous those were.  We also seem to be pushing to follow FDR ill-advised skew tightening that in large part muted the recovery in 1937. Why? Why do we pretend that macro-economics is the same as a personal check

This blog is to discuss aspects of current thinking of economics. I hope that it can join with the many quality sites in the discussion of economic policy in the private and public sphere.

I have been really enjoying learning all about building a website. I have spent some good time on this project and know that it will take time a patient to build traffic. However, I am truly amazed by the whole thing. There are just so many tools to communicate and share with the whole world. The break down of time and space and to some extent even cost is something that I can truly comprehend at this point. I think I am going to have to pray and meditate on the internet and all that it really can mean.