Employment Preview

Employment Situation

Released On 3/9/2012 8:30:00 AM For Feb, 2012

	Prior	Consensus	Consensus Range
Nonfarm Payrolls - M/M change	243,000	204,000	180,000 to 275,000
Unemployment Rate - Level	8.3 %	8.3 %	8.1 % to 8.5 %
Average Hourly Earnings - M/M change	0.2 %	0.2 %	0.2 % to 0.4 %
Av Workweek - All Employees	34.5 hrs	34.5 hrs	34.5 hrs to 34.6 hrs
Private Payrolls - M/M change	257,000	220,000	195,000 to 285,000

Market Consensus before announcement
Nonfarm payroll employment in January advanced 243,000 after jumping 203,000 in December and rising 157,000 in November. The net revisions for November and December were up 60,000. As for some time, private payrolls outstripped the total, increasing 257,000 in January, following a gain of 220,000 in December. Average hourly earnings rose 0.2 percent in January, following a 0.1 percent increase the prior month. The average workweek for all workers in January held steady at 34.5 hours. From the household survey, the unemployment rate dropped to 8.3 percent from 8.5 percent in December. This was the lowest rate in three years.

Definition
The employment situation is a set of labor market indicators based on two separate surveys in this one report. Based on the Household Survey, the unemployment rate measures the number of unemployed as a percentage of the labor force. Other key series come from the Establishment Survey (of business establishments). Nonfarm payroll employment counts the number of paid employees working part-time or full-time in the nation's business and government establishments. The average workweek reflects the number of hours worked in the nonfarm sector. Average hourly earnings reveal the basic hourly rate for major industries as indicated in nonfarm payrolls.

During the mature phase of an economic expansion, monthly payrolls gains of 150,000 or so are considered relatively healthy. In the early stages of recovery though, gains are expected to surpass 250,000 per month.
Data Source: Haver Analytics

The civilian unemployment rate is a lagging indicator of economic activity. During a recession, many people leave the labor force entirely, so the jobless rate may not increase as much as expected. This means that the jobless rate may continue to increase in the early stages of recovery because more people are returning to the labor force as they believe they will be able to find work. The civilian unemployment rate tends towards greater stability than payroll employment on a monthly basis. It reveals the degree to which labor resources are utilized in the economy.
Data Source: Haver Analytics

2012 Release Schedule

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