Seeing Through Data

Seeing Through Data:

Things are not all rosy. Michael Olenick does not believe that the 'worst' is behind us.

  'there is not a single credible data point I’ve seen that home prices will increase anytime   soon. They may stabilize if banks control inventory, but by definition that means buyers can wait to see what actually happens rather than what’s predicted to happen.'

I am not clear that this not what everyone is saying. There is not an all clear sign and as noted earlier in markets such as Florida, Nevada, California there will be further declines. This is much more of its better than before sign and the all clear will be somewhere between 2015-2018.

Second point -

'But for all other buyers, which includes virtually everybody, heed the hindsight of those who purchased homes at every other phantom market bottom and who are now underwater. Wait until you see price appreciation, in the region you want to purchase, for a quarter or two. Your house may cost a few thousand dollars more in the short-term than at the genuine bottom but, in the long run, it’s a safer bet than losing tens of thousands of dollars in an unstable market.'

I totally agree with this point - even if we are at bottom, future price growth will be very slow, if any, for the next five years. It seems prudent that anyone who is not looking be in a home for more than five years and believes that be able to 'own' your shelter is important in the long run, i.e. consistency and ability to make improvements, they should not buy now.