Posts

Showing posts from November 18, 2012

What Happens if Congress Extends Tax Cuts for Those Making 500,000?

What Happens if Congress Extends Tax Cuts for Those Making 500,000?  This is another good idea about how to switch the cliff into a gradual slope which balances the short term need for economic support with long term need for fiscal restraint. We shall see how the negotiation unfolds.

Demand is key

Not a simple mismatch but a lack of demand. Here  are the chairman's comments about the sluggish recovery.

When theory doesn't fit your narrative

As noted  here , Papa John did not understand the free market theory that he cares so much for. We have seen a lot of this lately as the narrative related to the fiscal cliff has shown that if you a truly free market the fiscal cliff would have been the necessary purging of the wretch in the economy. Consistency is key to understand conviction from convenience.

HOUSING STARTS at 894,000

More  news  in the right direction. The housing industry continues to show signs of the methodical recovery. Slow and deliberate but steady and upward.

Will Housing Starts be above 840 thousand SAAR in October

I think they will be slightly above 840.  There is some possibility that we will get back a million starts by the end of 2013.  This is will continue to help positive GDP growth in 2013.  

Existing-Home Sales Rise in October with Ongoing Price and Equity Gains | realtor.org

Existing-Home Sales Rise in October with Ongoing Price and Equity Gains | realtor.org : Another piece of positive news in the housing market.

NAHB: Builder Confidence Rises Five Points in November

NAHB: Builder Confidence Rises Five Points in November : The climb continues... I think by middle of next year we can finally yet expansion or 'good' conditions.

Taxes

Ezra Klein walks through the current standoff  here . I think that the Democrats clearly have the advantage and there is no reason to not wait until January 1st to work on all aspects of the fiscal cliff including the raising of the debt ceiling. A simple framework is not the answer in the short term. There will be an inherent pressure to get a deal done after the changes have come into place rather than before. We may not like it but that is the reality of human compromise.

GAO report on Medicaid

Still unpacking.  Here  is the report.

Economist's View: Fed Watch: Fiscal Madness

Economist's View: Fed Watch: Fiscal Madness : I think we will get there.  We need to be patient and work towards a solution that has the least amount determent to the current recovery but puts into place the building blocks of long term fiscal stability.

Europe in Recession

Europe in deep recession

A short start on Economic theory

There is a change in how economic analysis needs to be performed. Why do we disconnect policy, morality, justice and social conventions from economics as if it is not always seen through that lens from all ends of the spectrum. When we look at the current writings of John Taylor and then review the writings of Joseph Stiglitz one can plainly see they would look at the same data one thousand times and always point to how it solidifies their case. It has seemed that economics has become a religion precisely because it pretends to be non ideological.

Don’t Mess with the Mouse

Don’t Mess with the Mouse It's disappointing when you have an actual sensible position come out of the Republican Party and have it redacted almost immediately. I am fully onboard for reform in this area.